ROI-Paris jitters, oil battles and a Bolsonaro-fuelled Brazil rally: The financial week in five charts
SPY•French borrowing rates and risk premia versus Germany rose to levels last seen during the 2011 euro crisis, while the euro fell to an 18-month low against the dollar. The week also featured rising Treasury term-premium concerns, Middle East oil producers competing for market share, a rally in Brazilian assets and voters’ concerns about AI risks.
1. France and Treasury concerns
Market anxiety over France’s budget deficits and upcoming elections pushed French borrowing rates and risk premia versus Germany to levels not seen since 2011. The euro fell to an 18-month low against the dollar. Separately, a rising term premium on long-dated Treasuries raised concern about pressure on both stocks and bonds; its cause remained an open question.
2. Oil and Brazil
Middle East oil producers increased exports as they sought to regain market share lost during the Iran war. Iraq and Saudi Arabia offered deep discounts to buyers loading cargoes inside the Gulf, while the risk and expense of shipping through Hormuz could limit the effect on pump prices. In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro did better than expected in the first round of the presidential election, and Brazilian assets and the real rallied on Monday.
3. US views on AI
Most US voters believe the Trump administration, Congress and AI companies are not taking AI risks seriously enough, a poll found. President Donald Trump continued to support what he calls “Super Intelligence” and the data-center infrastructure it requires, arguing that the United States cannot afford to fall behind China.
