Royal Caribbean Buy Upgrade After 22% Drop with FY2026 EPS at $17 Guidance

RCLRCL

Analyst upgrades RCL to Buy after a 22% stock correction, citing preliminary FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $17 (+8.9% YoY) versus its three-year 20% CAGR target under the Perfecta Program. Risks include Caribbean cruise oversupply from NCLH’s aggressive expansion and its family-friendly pricing strategy.

1. Record Earnings and Net Income Milestones

Royal Caribbean generated a record $2.88 billion in earnings during fiscal 2024, marking a significant rebound from pandemic losses that exceeded $13 billion over 2020–2022. Over the trailing 12 months, the company amassed more than $4 billion in net income, driven by margin improvements and operational efficiencies. This performance builds on solid revenue growth, with total sales exceeding $20 billion in 2024, up over 25% from the prior year.

2. Exceptional Demand and Load Factor Strength

Cruise bookings remain robust, as evidenced by a load factor of 112% in the third quarter of 2025, indicating that ships sailed at full or over capacity on key itineraries. Revenue for that quarter reached $5.14 billion, up 5% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share climbed more than 10% to $5.75. Management cites sustained consumer interest in premium cruise experiences as a central driver of these gains.

3. Disciplined Debt Reduction and Cash Flow Generation

Since the onset of the pandemic, Royal Caribbean issued over $12 billion in debt but has since repaid approximately $3.75 billion of long-term obligations during 2023–2024. Free cash flow returned to positive territory, totaling $2 billion in 2024 and slightly exceeding that level over the most recent 12-month span. This cash flow strength enabled the reinstatement of the dividend and modest share repurchases, balancing shareholder returns with ongoing capital commitments for ship deployments and refurbishments.

4. Upgraded Guidance and Attractive Valuation Heading into 2026

Royal Caribbean has raised its full-year 2025 guidance to $15.58–15.63 in adjusted earnings per share, reflecting confidence in continued margin expansion and demand resilience. For fiscal 2026, preliminary guidance calls for $17 in adjusted EPS, an 8.9% year-over-year increase. At current valuation levels, this implies a forward earnings multiple below 20, creating a compelling entry point for investors targeting cyclical recovery stories with demonstrable cash generation and debt reduction track records.

Sources

FS