Seagate Beats Q2 Estimates, Capacity Sold Out and Guides Strong Q3

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Seagate’s Q2 EPS of $3.11 topped estimates by $0.28, with revenue of $2.83B beating consensus by $90M and rising 21% year-over-year. Management said 2026 production capacity is fully booked and guided Q3 revenue of $2.90B and adjusted EPS of $3.40, while HAMR drive shipments rose to 1.5M units.

1. Stellar Fiscal Q2 Performance Drives Upside

Seagate Technology reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $2.83 billion, representing 22% year-over-year growth, and GAAP net income of $553 million, up 76% from the prior-year period. EPS of $3.11 topped consensus by $0.34, while gross margin expanded by 670 basis points to 42.2% and operating margin widened by 880 basis points to 31.9%. The company attributes these gains to strong adoption of high-capacity nearline drives in AI‐focused data centers as well as improved product mix across its HDD and SSD portfolios.

2. Fully Booked Capacity and Bullish Guidance

Management announced that 2026 production capacity is effectively sold out, with orders for next-generation helium-sealed HDDs and heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) units already committed through 2027 and into 2028. For Q3, Seagate guided to revenue between $2.9 billion and $3.0 billion and EPS of $3.20–$3.60, factors that imply sequential growth in both top- and bottom-line metrics. The company’s visibility underscores confidence in sustained hyperscale data-center build-out, where independent research projects a 25% CAGR through 2030.

3. Analysts Raise Targets on AI-Driven Demand

Following the earnings release, at least three major research firms increased their fair-value estimates by an average of 8%, citing Seagate’s tight supply dynamics and pricing power per terabyte as key drivers. Consensus now reflects moderate-to-strong buy ratings from 19 analysts versus five holds. Several leading institutions highlighted the firm’s HAMR roll-out—1.5 million units shipped last quarter, up 50% year-over-year—as evidence of sustainable margin expansion and defensible market share gains in the high-capacity segment.

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