Semiconductor ETF Drops 10% Early July as Micron Beats Estimates, Guides $30B Capex
SMH•VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 10% in the first two trading days of July yet remains above its rising 50-day moving average after failing to close above $600. Heavy-weight Micron reported Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion, 17% above estimates, with 84% gross margins and $30 billion full-year capex guidance.
1. SMH Technical Performance Early July
VanEck Semiconductor ETF declined 10% in the first two trading days of July, trading just above its rising 50-day moving average. The ETF failed to break the $600 level after bouncing from this support, echoing resistance seen in March and April.
2. Micron Q3 2026 Earnings Beat
Micron reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion, 17% above consensus, and operating income of $33.7 billion, 22% above estimates. Gross margins reached 84% with operating margins at 81%, underscoring robust AI memory demand.
3. Strategic Agreements and Capex Outlook
The company secured 16 strategic customer agreements covering 20% of DRAM and one-third of NAND volume through 2030 with price floor and ceiling bands to reduce cycle volatility. It guided $10 billion in Q4 capex and $30 billion for full-year 2026, signaling sustained investment.
