Seoul's worst China tech fears are coming true
MU•Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT is gaining ground as Samsung and SK Hynix shift capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, creating an opening in conventional chips. CXMT's DRAM shipment share is expected to rise to 11% in 2028 from 8% last year, and analysts expect it to exceed the 15% threshold for viability in less than a decade.
1. Chinese memory makers advance
Chinese chipmakers are narrowing the technology gap with South Korean leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The Korea Semiconductor Industry Association estimates Chinese firms are two years behind in DRAM and three years behind in high-bandwidth memory, while the gap in flash memory is one year.
2. A market opening for CXMT
Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are directing more capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, contributing to a shortage of conventional memory. CXMT's products are considered capable of competing, and Apple, Dell and HP are considering using Chinese memory chips in devices sold outside the United States, media reports say.
3. Growth and risks
Bernstein analysts estimate CXMT will generate operating profit of 643 billion yuan ($96.4 billion) next year, compared with 8 billion yuan in 2025, and project cumulative capital expenditure above $68 billion over three years. Counterpoint expects CXMT's DRAM shipment share to reach 11% in 2028, from 8% last year, and analysts expect it to pass the 15% market-share threshold in less than a decade. US export controls and possible limits on access to technology remain risks.
