Seoul's worst China tech fears are coming true
SMH•Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT is gaining ground as South Korean companies focus on high-bandwidth memory, with CXMT's DRAM share expected to reach 11% in 2028 from 8% last year. Analysts expect it to cross the 15% market-share threshold considered necessary for viability in less than a decade.
1. South Korea’s chip exposure
Semiconductors accounted for 40% of South Korea’s $700 billion in exports in the eight months through August. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix represent roughly half of the KOSPI’s market capitalization and together held more than 60% of DRAM revenue and over 80% of high-bandwidth memory revenue, the article says.
2. CXMT builds momentum
US-backed restrictions on advanced chipmaking equipment have limited Chinese makers’ access to leading technology, but the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association estimates CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies trail market leaders by two years in DRAM and three years in high-bandwidth memory. With Samsung, SK and Micron shifting capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, a shortage of conventional memory is creating an opening for CXMT; Apple, Dell and HP are considering Chinese memory chips for devices sold outside the United States, the article says, citing media reports.
3. Expansion and risks
Bernstein analysts estimate CXMT will generate 643 billion yuan ($96.4 billion) in operating profit next year, up from 8 billion yuan in 2025, and project more than $68 billion in cumulative capital expenditure over three years. Counterpoint expects CXMT’s DRAM shipment share to rise to 11% in 2028 from 8% last year and says memory makers need at least 15% market share to remain viable. Potential tighter US export controls could set Chinese chipmakers back, while the article says new technologies could help them work around equipment constraints.
