Analysts covering Shell are forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $1.45 for the quarter ended December 2025, up from $1.32 a year ago, driven largely by higher upstream realizations. Consensus revenue estimates stand at $92 billion, representing a 4% year-over-year increase. Return on capital employed is projected at 12.3%, compared with 11.1% in Q4 2024, reflecting better asset utilization and disciplined capital allocation. Free cash flow is expected to exceed $8 billion, supported by disciplined working-capital management and the absence of major turnaround maintenance this quarter.

Shell’s upstream operations are forecast to report production of 3.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 2% rise year-over-year, driven by ramp-up at the Whale deepwater project and increased output in Malaysia. Exploration and production margins are estimated at $28 per barrel of oil equivalent, up from $25 in the prior-year period, thanks to stable Brent differentials and tight cost controls. Management guidance suggests upstream cash margins could contribute nearly $6.5 billion to segment profit, cushioning the impact of weaker downstream results.

Seasonally lower demand in the retail fuels business is expected to weigh on marketing margins, with per-unit margins forecast at $7.50 per barrel, down from $8.20 in Q4 2024. The chemicals segment faces pressure from sluggish petrochemical spreads and planned turnarounds at key ethylene crackers in Europe. Analysts project a 5% decline in chemicals EBITDA to $1.9 billion. Refining throughput is estimated at 2.8 million barrels per day, flat sequentially but down 1.5% year-over-year due to maintenance in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that the global liquefied natural gas sector is expanding at roughly 3% per annum, outpacing the broader gas market. Shell’s own LNG volumes are expected to reach 21 million tonnes for Q4, up from 20.4 million tonnes in the year-ago quarter, driven by increased cargo availability from new capacity at Prelude and Corpus Christi. Average realized LNG margin is projected at $2.15 per million British thermal units, compared with $2.00 in Q4 2024, reflecting tighter global supply balances and improved contract indexing.