Shell has signaled a major expansion of its Nigeria upstream footprint by outlining plans to invest as much as $20 billion over the coming years. The company recently sanctioned a final investment decision (FID) of approximately $5 billion for the Bonga North deepwater development and approved an additional $2 billion for the HI/Feed shallow-water gas project. Negotiations are now under way on the Bonga South-West project, which could require nearly $10 billion in capital expenditure plus substantial operating costs throughout its lifecycle. These approvals bring Shell’s total commitments in Nigeria to close to $7 billion over the past 13 months, underscoring its strategic focus on West African liquids and gas growth opportunities.

The HI gas development, located offshore in shallow water, secured its FID in October 2025 and is expected to achieve peak output of up to 350 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas, equivalent to roughly 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent. The project is structured as a joint venture between Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited and Sunlink Energies and Resources Limited. Infrastructure plans include a new processing platform, subsea pipelines tying back to an onshore gas plant, and capacity for future incremental liftings. First gas is targeted in the fourth quarter of 2028, with operating expenditures estimated at $15–18 per barrel of oil equivalent over the first five years of plateau production.

In its latest quarterly outlook, Shell adjusted its Integrated Gas production guidance to a range of 930,000–970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, tightened from the prior 920,000–980,000 boe/d view. The company also narrowed its liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction forecast to between 7.5 million and 7.9 million metric tons, compared with the earlier range of 7.4–8.0 million tons. Management cited stronger-than-expected plant reliability in Australia and Qatar offsetting temporary maintenance outages in Nigeria. These revisions aim to give investors greater precision on full-year volumes and underpin cash-flow projections for capital allocation decisions across the energy transition portfolio.