Shell is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with analysts forecasting a challenging environment following an almost 19% decline in Brent crude over the year. Headline earnings for 2025 are expected to fall by roughly one-fifth compared with 2024, while fourth-quarter earnings are projected to be down about 10% year-on-year. In its January trading update, the company flagged lower earnings in downstream, a ‘‘significant loss’’ in chemicals and a ‘‘significantly lower’’ contribution from energy trading, underscoring the pressure on headline metrics.

Investor focus will center on Shell’s ability to maintain its aggressive capital returns program. At the last two trading updates, Shell committed to share buybacks of $3.5 billion each, marking the 16th consecutive quarter with buybacks of at least $3 billion. This positions Shell alongside Exxon Mobil as the only majors sustaining high buyback levels despite weaker oil prices, while peers such as BP and Chevron have pulled back. Continuation of this pace will hinge on free cash flow generation and ongoing cost control.

Under CEO Wael Sawan, Shell has delivered upstream production improvements, with fourth-quarter output forecast at 1.84–1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day versus 1.832 million in Q3. LNG volumes are also expected to edge higher. At its March 2025 capital markets day, management raised its cost reduction target from $2–3 billion to $5–7 billion cumulative by end-2028 and trimmed annual capital expenditure guidance to $20–22 billion through that period. Meeting these targets will be critical to funding buybacks and sustaining margins.

Shell continues to rationalize its portfolio, reportedly exploring the sale of its Vaca Muerta assets in Argentina for several billion dollars and having exited certain renewables and LNG projects. Conversely, it is doubling down in Nigeria, where Sawan highlighted recent commitments of $5 billion to the Bonga North deepwater project and $2 billion to the HI gas field, with plans for a potential $20 billion Bonga Southwest development. Investors will watch commentary on capital allocation priorities and any update on a potential move of the company’s primary listing to New York, a step that could reshape its valuation dynamics.