Shell is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Thursday, with analysts forecasting full-year headline earnings to decline by around 20% year-on-year following a nearly 19% drop in Brent crude over the past 12 months. For the fourth quarter specifically, consensus estimates point to a 10% earnings decline compared with the same period in 2024. In its January trading update, Shell signalled that its downstream division will face lower margins, its chemicals arm will record a significant loss, and its energy trading business is expected to underperform the third quarter, putting pressure on the company to once again beat market expectations as it has done in five of the last eight quarters under CEO Wael Sawan’s leadership.

Despite the weaker oil price environment, Shell’s upstream operations continue to show resilience. The company guided production for the fourth quarter to a range of 1.84–1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up from 1.832 million boe/d in Q3. Liquefied natural gas volumes are also projected to edge higher quarter-on-quarter. These modest gains in core output will be closely watched by investors seeking confirmation that Shell can maintain cash flow generation sufficient to support its capital return commitments.

Shell has announced $3.5 billion in share buybacks at each of its last two trading updates, marking the 16th consecutive quarter with at least $3.0 billion in repurchases. This performance has positioned Shell as a leader in capital discipline among its integrated‐oil peers, with only one rival maintaining a comparable buyback pace despite lower crude prices. Investors will scrutinize tomorrow’s results for any signals on whether Sawan can sustain this level of capital returns, which depend on meeting cost reduction targets. At its March 2025 Capital Markets Day, Shell raised its cumulative cost-savings goal to $5–7 billion by the end of 2028 and trimmed its annual capital expenditure guidance to $20–22 billion for 2025–28.

Under Sawan, Shell has continued to reshape its asset base to optimise capital allocation. Reuters reported potential divestment of the Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina, which could fetch several billion dollars, following earlier sales of an Argentinian LNG project and renewable-energy interests. Meanwhile, Sawan has doubled down on Nigeria, committing $5 billion to the Bonga North deepwater development and $2 billion to the HI gas field, and advancing plans for the $20 billion-plus Bonga Southwest project. Questions also linger over a possible shift of Shell’s primary stock listing to New York, a move that would aim to narrow the valuation gap with U.S. competitors and underscore the company’s global ambitions.