Shell is set to report fourth‐quarter and full‐year 2025 results on Thursday, with analysts projecting a headline earnings decline of around 10% in Q4 and roughly 20% for the full year, largely reflecting a 19% drop in Brent crude over 2025. In its January trading update, the company flagged lower downstream earnings, a “significant loss” in chemicals and much weaker energy trading results compared with the third quarter. Investors will closely compare reported figures with Shell’s third-quarter outperformance of $5.4 billion in earnings versus consensus forecasts of $5.1 billion, a trend the company has delivered in five of the last eight quarters under CEO Wael Sawan’s leadership.

Since Wael Sawan succeeded Ben van Beurden just over three years ago, Shell has sharpened its operational metrics. In Q4 2025, upstream production is forecast at 1.84–1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up modestly from 1.832 million in Q3, while LNG volumes are expected to edge higher. These gains will be weighed against the company’s cost controls: at its March 2025 capital markets day, Shell raised its cost reduction target from $2–3 billion by end-2025 to $5–7 billion by end-2028, alongside a lowered capex guidance of $20–22 billion annually through 2028.

Shell’s capital discipline remains a key investor focus. The company has announced at least $3 billion in share repurchases for 16 consecutive quarters and unveiled plans for another $3.5 billion buyback at its latest trading update. Only Exxon Mobil among major peers has maintained a similar pace despite weaker crude. Sustaining this program will depend on continued cost control and free cash flow under pressure from lower oil prices. Any indication tomorrow that Shell will scale back buybacks would represent a notable shift in its best-in-class capital return strategy.

Sawan’s tenure has featured active portfolio management, including potential asset sales in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin and divestments in renewables and LNG projects. Growth focus has shifted to Nigeria, where Shell recently committed $5 billion to the Bonga North deepwater project and $2 billion to the HI gas field, and is advancing plans for a $20 billion Bonga Southwest development. Commentary on further divestitures or new project approvals will signal how Shell plans to balance capital discipline with long-term growth under current market conditions.