Shell is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Thursday. With Brent crude down almost 19% over the year and dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time in nearly five years, consensus forecasts suggest headline earnings for 2025 will be roughly 20% lower than in 2024. For the fourth quarter specifically, analysts project a year-on-year earnings decline of around 10%. In last month’s trading update, the company warned of lower downstream profits, a significant loss in its chemicals division and a markedly weaker performance in its energy trading business compared with Q3.

Despite the revenue headwinds, Shell’s upstream operations continue to deliver growth. The company has guided Q4 production to 1.84–1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 1.832 million barrels in Q3. Liquefied natural gas volumes are also expected to edge higher. This steady performance helps offset challenges elsewhere and underscores CEO Wael Sawan’s emphasis on operational efficiency, which has driven Shell to exceed earnings expectations in five of the last eight quarters.

A key focus for investors will be Shell’s ability to sustain its capital returns program. For sixteen consecutive quarters, the company has announced buybacks of at least $3 billion, most recently approving another $3.5 billion repurchase. Only Exxon Mobil among its major peers has maintained a similar pace in the face of falling crude prices; BP and Chevron have trimmed theirs. Shell’s cost-cutting ambitions, revised at its March 2024 capital markets day to $5–7 billion of cumulative savings by end-2028, alongside a lowered annual capex target of $20–22 billion, will be critical to funding further buybacks without compromising the balance sheet.

Investors will watch for updates on asset sales and reinvestment plans. Reuters recently reported that Shell is exploring a sale of its Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina, potentially raising several billion dollars. Meanwhile, the group has signaled increased focus on Nigeria, where Sawan secured presidential approval for $5 billion worth of investment in the Bonga North deepwater project and $2 billion in the HI gas field. Plans for the larger Bonga Southwest development could see up to $20 billion deployed. Any commentary on potential relocation of Shell’s primary listing to New York or a renewed interest in BP will also draw close scrutiny, given the strategic implications for its valuation and competitive positioning.