Shell has accelerated its investment strategy in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, with NNPC Group CEO Bashir Ojulari confirming plans to deploy up to $20 billion over the coming years. The company has already greenlighted a final investment decision of approximately $5 billion for the Bonga North deepwater expansion and secured board approval for a further $2 billion into the HI/Feed shallow‐water gas development. Ongoing negotiations on the Bonga South‐West project could add nearly $10 billion in capital expenditures, on top of operational spending projected across the field’s multi‐decade lifespan. These commitments follow nearly $7 billion of Shell and partner outlays in Nigeria during the past 13 months, underscoring the region’s elevated strategic priority.

The newly sanctioned HI gas development is structured to produce up to 350 million standard cubic feet of gas per day—equivalent to roughly 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent at peak output. This incremental volume is set to bolster Shell’s Integrated Gas portfolio, feeding both domestic power markets and export condensate streams. Investors should note the potential earnings contribution from mid‐cycle gas prices in West Africa, as well as the project’s proximity to existing pipelines that can mitigate incremental FID-to-first‐gas timelines.

Shell has revised its fourth‐quarter guidance for Integrated Gas production to a range of 930,000–970,000 boe/d, narrowing from the previous 920,000–980,000 boe/d band, reflecting stronger operational performance in Nigeria and other key assets. Conversely, annual liquefaction volumes forecasts have been adjusted to 7.5–7.9 million metric tons, down slightly from the earlier 7.4–8.0 million metric tons outlook, as maintenance schedules in Australia and training campaigns in Europe impact plant uptime. These updates will influence cash flow expectations and capital allocation debates ahead of Shell’s Q4 results announcement.