Shell trims Q1 gas output outlook to 880–920 kboe/d
Shell lowered its Q1 2026 integrated gas production outlook to 880–920 kboe/d from 948 kboe/d, citing Middle East conflict disruptions on Qatari volumes. The company projects a $17/bbl indicative refining margin, 95–99% refinery utilization and marketing sales of 2,550–2,650 kb/d for Q1 2026.
1. Q1 2026 Production Outlook
Shell forecasts integrated gas production of 880–920 kboe/d in Q1 2026, down from 948 kboe/d in Q4’25 due to disruptions to Qatari volumes caused by the Middle East conflict. LNG liquefaction volumes are expected at 7.6–8.0 MT, while upstream output is guided at 1,760–1,860 kboe/d following the Adura JV incorporation.
2. Segment Financial Outlook
Marketing sales volumes are projected at 2,550–2,650 kb/d with underlying opex of $2.2–2.6 billion, and adjusted earnings are set to be significantly higher than Q1’25. Chemicals adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q1’25, renewables and energy solutions are forecast to deliver $0.2–0.7 billion, and corporate will record a loss of $0.8–1.0 billion.
3. Margins and Utilization
The indicative refining margin is pegged at $17/bbl, up from $14/bbl in Q4’25, supporting refinery utilization of 95–99%. Chemicals margin is forecast at $139/tonne with utilization of 81–85%, and trading & optimisation across segments is anticipated to exceed Q4’25 levels.