SoftBank’s 66% Rally Ousts Toyota, whose Shares Dropped 10% YTD
TM•SoftBank’s market cap reached 48.16 trillion yen after a 66% YTD gain, overtaking Toyota as Japan’s largest public company. Toyota shares fell 10% YTD, driven by U.S. tariffs, Iran war pressures and a near 50% drop in quarterly profit with full-year earnings projected down 20%.
1. Valuation Shift
SoftBank’s 66% year-to-date surge lifted its market capitalization to 48.16 trillion yen, pushing Toyota into second place among Japan’s public companies. This marks the first time Toyota has ceded the top valuation spot since 2015.
2. Share Performance
Toyota shares have declined 10% year-to-date, underperforming both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and the iShares MSCI Japan ETF, which have traded near flat. In contrast, SoftBank’s U.S.-listed shares climbed 66% over the same period.
3. Profit Outlook
Toyota reported an almost 50% drop in quarterly net profit to around 460 billion yen and warned that full-year profit could fall by about 20% due to softer EV sales and geopolitical headwinds. Cost pressures from U.S. tariffs and Iran war have further weighed on margins.
4. Retail Investor Sentiment
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned ‘extremely bearish’ for Toyota, with message volume slumping 78% over 90 days even as watchers ticked up 1%. That contrasts with neutral-to-bullish sentiment for SoftBank and a doubling of its retail message volume.
