S&P Global sees Canadian oil sands output averaging record 3.5 million bpd in 2026
USO•S&P Global projects Canadian oil sands output will average a record 3.5 million barrels per day in 2026, up 100,000 bpd. It forecasts output reaching 3.9 million bpd in the early 2030s before roughly plateauing under its base case.
1. Output forecast
S&P Global projects Canadian oil sands production will average 3.5 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 100,000 bpd and a record. It expects output to reach 3.9 million bpd in the early 2030s, then roughly plateau under its base case; nearly 500,000 bpd of additional capacity could advance beyond that outlook if investment conditions improve.
