S&P on track for muted open as Middle East tensions weigh; AI stocks boost Nasdaq

The S&P 500 was set to open subdued on Monday as markets weighed the prospect of fewer interest-rate hikes against Middle East tensions, while the report of a strong revenue forecast from AI lab Anthropic put the Nasdaq on course for a higher open. Reuters reported on Friday that Anthropic, which is preparing for its IPO, forecast 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion, according to two people familiar with the company's financials. Markets will turn to a new round of quarterly results later this week, with retail bellwether Walmart `WMT.O` and home improvement retailer Home Depot `HD.N` among the few names left to report in the current earnings season. So far, 453 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, with 84.8% beating analysts' estimates, according to LSEG IBES data. In other movers, U.S.-listed shares of Vista `VISTAA.MX`, `VIST.N` gained 4.7% after Peter Thiel bought a 1% stake in the Latin American oil company. At 08:34 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis `YMcv1` fell 175 points, or 0.33%, S&P 500 E-minis `EScv1` rose 3.5 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis `NQcv1` gained 98 points, or 0.33%. A batch of soft inflation data along with a surprise decline in retail sales helped traders dial back the odds of an interest-rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its September meeting, pushing the S&P 500 `.SPX` to a record high last week. Traders are pricing in a nearly 31% chance the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points next month, sharply lower than the near-even chances of a hike versus a hold a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The lack of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has brought economic data under greater scrutiny, while elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict stoke inflation fears. Iran called on the U.S. to accept defeat on Saturday, while President Donald Trump referred to Tehran as "very evil" and told Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices as a result of the war. Most megacap and growth stocks were marginally higher in premarket trading. Amazon `AMZN.O` and Apple `AAPL.O` added 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Chipmakers were also up, with shares of Micron Technology `MU.O` and Broadcom `AVGO.O` rising 3% and 1.1%, respectively. "There is still a huge amount of confidence from investors that some of these businesses are being able to demand these massive valuations when they list on the stock market," said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell. "People are seeing where money is being spent, where the returns are coming from... and those things mean the immediate concern about a potential AI boom then bust is waning somewhat." Concerns over the payoff from AI investments have battered chip stocks recently, but robust quarterly results and forecasts signaling resilient demand have brought the tech-heavy Nasdaq `.IXIC` closer to record highs. Markets will keep a close eye next week on results from chipmaker Nvidia `NVDA.O`, the most valuable company in the world, for signs on whether the tech-driven momentum can last. Nvidia edged up 0.8% after a report said it has scaled back plans to support a proposed OpenAI data center project in Ohio, easing worries about circular financing in the sector.

S&P on track for muted open as Middle East tensions weigh; AI stocks boost Nasdaq

Futures point to a subdued open

Earnings season and Vista Energy move

Fed expectations and inflation data remain in focus

Megacap tech and chipmakers rise in premarket trading

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