SpaceX Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Supports Floor but Lockup Expiration Caps Upside
SPCX•SpaceX shares are set to join the Nasdaq-100 in early July, prompting passive index funds to allocate billions in new purchases that could support a price floor. However, the company's elevated valuation multiples and a looming lockup expiration—unleashing tens of millions of shares—may limit near-term upside.
1. Nasdaq-100 Inclusion to Drive Passive Inflows
SpaceX is scheduled to enter the Nasdaq-100 on July 6, meaning any index-tracking ETFs and funds must purchase its stock to match the index weightings. Estimates suggest passive investors could inject over $2 billion into the shares, creating support at current price levels and bolstering liquidity.
2. Valuation and Lockup Release May Cap Gains
Despite the expected inflows, SpaceX trades at a steep forward price-to-earnings multiple compared with peers, raising concerns about overvaluation. A 180-day lockup expires in mid-July, releasing tens of millions of additional shares and increasing supply, which may constrain upside until the market absorbs the new float.
