SpaceX’s $2 Trillion IPO Draws Amazon’s 90% Dot-Com Crash Parallel
AMZN•Former Lehman trader Larry McDonald warns that SpaceX's $1.8–2 trillion IPO valuation and $18.7 billion 2025 revenue echo Amazon's dot-com peak in 2000 when its stock plunged over 90%. He cautions that accelerated index inclusion could force passive funds to buy overpriced shares, exposing retirement accounts to significant downside risk.
1. SpaceX IPO Valuation and Revenue
SpaceX filed IPO documents showing $18.7 billion revenue in 2025 and $4.7 billion in Q1 2026, seeking a $1.8–2 trillion valuation and aiming to raise up to $75 billion.
2. Historical Parallel to Amazon
Larry McDonald warns that pricing SpaceX like Amazon in spring 2000 is premature, recalling that Amazon’s share price collapsed over 90% during the dot-com bust before its eventual recovery.
3. Passive Investing Risks
Fast-track index inclusion rules could compel index funds to purchase large volumes of SpaceX stock regardless of valuation, potentially distorting markets and exposing retirement savers to outsized losses.
4. AI-Driven Market Narrative
The combined valuation of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic has surged from about $760 billion to $3.5 trillion in a year, highlighting investor reliance on the AI narrative and raising fears of an overheated IPO cycle.
