SPDR Gold Trust NAV Under Pressure as Gold Slips to $4,385 After 63% 2025 Surge
Gold fell to around $4,385 per ounce after surpassing 124% gains over five years and 63% in 2025, driving potential NAV adjustments in SPDR Gold Trust. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold at $5,000/oz by end-2026 and $5,400/oz by end-2027, underpinning long-term ETF demand.
1. GLD Remains Attractive on Potential Fed Easing
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) continues to draw investor interest as markets anticipate a pivot toward monetary easing by the Federal Reserve later this year. With the Fed’s balance sheet still elevated by trillions of dollars of liquidity injected since the 2008 financial crisis, GLD offers a convenient avenue for exposure to physical gold without the need for storage or insurance logistics. Investors have been adding to GLD positions in recent months, pushing its total assets under management above $60 billion. The fund’s expense ratio of 0.66% remains competitive among major gold ETFs, and its daily trading volume consistently ranks in the top decile of all commodity-backed funds, underscoring its deep liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads.
2. Long-Term Growth Outlook Supported by Analyst Forecasts
Leading banking analysts at J.P. Morgan have reiterated their bullish forecasts for gold over the next two years, projecting a rise to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 and to $5,400 by the end of 2027. These targets are underpinned by analysts’ view that official reserve managers and institutional investors will continue diversifying into gold as a hedge against an expanding U.S. government debt load—now approaching $38 trillion—and looming inflationary pressures. Given GLD’s role as the largest and most widely held gold ETF, investors positioning for these anticipated price gains can efficiently access the metal’s upside via GLD, which accounted for roughly 60% of all gold ETF holdings globally at the end of 2025.