SPDR S&P 500 ETF Futures Fall 1.67% After Strait of Hormuz Closure
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust futures slid 1.67% to $674.93 in premarket as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened hostile action. Polymarket shows traders pricing a 93% probability of a down open on the S&P 500 with $28,200 in volume, while 10-year yields hold at 3.09%.
1. Premarket ETF Performance
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust futures declined 1.67% to $674.93 ahead of the open, while Invesco QQQ Trust futures dropped 2.21% to $594.67. Major benchmark futures for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also registered sharp losses.
2. Geopolitical Tensions Impact
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warnings to fire on passing vessels triggered heightened risk aversion. Concurrent targeted strikes on military sites in Tehran and Beirut amplified concerns over regional escalation.
3. Market Sentiment Indicators
Traders on Polymarket are forecasting a down open for the S&P 500 with 93% “Down” probability on roughly $28,200 in volume. This reflects extreme bearish sentiment entering the U.S. trading session.
4. Bond Yields and Rate Outlook
The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 3.09% and the two-year at 3.54%, with CME FedWatch pricing a 97.3% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in March.