STAG Industrial is projected to deliver approximately 9% annual AFFO/share growth driven by three primary levers. First, mark-to-market lease re-rolls on its same-store portfolio are expected to contribute 3%–5% organic growth, translating to about $22 million of incremental NOI and $0.12 per share of AFFO accretion. Second, with cap rates rising from the low-4% range to the mid-6% range, acquisitions have become immediately accretive. STAG’s 2025 acquisition guidance of $350–$500 million is set to rise to roughly $700 million in 2026—its five-year average—adding an estimated $11 million or $0.06 per share in AFFO. Third, its in-construction development pipeline, totaling $158 million and targeting 7% cash yields, should deliver $2 million or $0.01 per share of AFFO uplift upon stabilization.

Despite flat asking rents, STAG continues to benefit from legacy leases resetting to market levels. Through December 2, 2025, new leases have been signed at a 38.1% GAAP spread over expiring rents, with corresponding AFFO spreads of 24%. Management’s guidance calls for 18%–20% cash leasing spreads in 2026, with same-store NOI growth of 4.0%–4.25% in 2025 tapering to approximately 3.5% in 2026. As of 3Q25, STAG’s cash NOI run-rate stood at $161 million, implying an additional $22 million annually in cash NOI from lease resets alone.

Rising cap rates have unlocked acquisition opportunities: at a 6.5% going-in cap rate versus a weighted average cost of capital of roughly 5.75%, STAG secures a 75 basis-point spread on purchases and 125 basis-point spread on developments. The company’s 2026 acquisition pipeline aims to return to the $700 million annual run-rate, while its development projects are yielding 7%–9.3% stabilized cash returns. Notably, a 349,000 square-foot build-to-suit in Union, Ohio is slated for Q3 2026 completion, fully leased for 10 years with 3.25% annual escalations on a $34.6 million investment.

Trading at 17X forward AFFO, STAG offers investors a recently raised 4% dividend yield and a projected 13% total return when combining yield with AFFO growth. The REIT operates at approximately 5X debt-to-EBITDA with a BBB credit rating and over $100 million in free cash flow after dividends. Consensus net asset value stands at $44.24 per share, indicating a material discount to intrinsic value and peer multiples. Given its clean balance sheet, diversified 119.2 million square-foot portfolio across 41 states, and multiple growth catalysts, STAG presents a compelling risk-adjusted opportunity.