Starbucks has initiated a targeted program to close approximately 200 underperforming cafes in North America, redirecting resources to its top 5,000 locations. By concentrating sales volume in higher-traffic stores, management expects store-level margins to improve by 150–200 basis points annually. This rationalization is projected to reduce operating expenses by $100 million in fiscal 2026 and deliver a 2% lift in same-store sales at remaining units through more efficient labor deployment and higher average ticket size.

Under CEO Brian Niccol’s Back to Starbucks and Green Apron initiatives, global comparable-store sales turned positive in Q1 2025, rising 5.2% year-over-year. Domestic comps were flat in Q4 2025 but are forecast to climb 1.5% in 2026, while international comps grew 3.0% in 2025—the first uptick since 2023. The company added 1,100 new stores worldwide last year, increasing its total footprint to over 36,000 locations and contributing to a 4% increase in systemwide revenue.

Starbucks is accelerating expansion in China, Latin America and India, where middle-class growth is outpacing mature markets by nearly twofold. In China alone, the company opened 400 new stores in 2025 and plans another 450 in 2026, leveraging digital ordering and loyalty integration to boost average weekly transactions by 12%. In Latin America and India combined, store count grew by 8% last year, with digital sales representing 30% of total revenue in those regions.

Consensus forecasts for fiscal 2026 assume 3% revenue growth and margin expansion of 100 basis points, setting a low bar for potential upside. Analysts project total shareholder return of 15–20% by year-end 2026, driven by earnings surprises and multiple expansion. Starbucks’ dividend payout ratio peaked above 100% in 2025 due to restructuring costs but is expected to fall to 80% this year and 70% in 2027. Institutional investors hold over 70% of outstanding shares, while analysts’ target ranges imply limited downside of roughly 10–12% from current levels.