State Retirement Fund Boosts Strategy Stake Despite 20% Price-Target Cut
Strategy reported a $12.4 billion net loss in Q4 2025 while its 717,131-BTC holdings sit 13% underwater versus an average purchase price of $76,027. Despite Mizuho’s 20% price-target cut and a 65% share decline since October, a state retirement fund added to its position.
1. State Retirement Fund Increases Stake
A major U.S. state retirement fund boosted its holdings in Strategy stock despite recent downturn, signaling confidence in the firm's digital asset focus. The exact increase in shares was not publicly disclosed.
2. Mizuho Cuts Price Target but Maintains Outperform
Mizuho Securities lowered its price target from $403 to $320, a 20% reduction driven by Bitcoin weakness, yet upheld an Outperform rating for the shares based on long-term growth prospects.
3. Q4 2025 Loss and Bitcoin Position
Strategy posted a net loss of $12.4 billion in Q4 2025, with its 717,131-BTC holdings valued at $65,844 per coin versus an average purchase price of $76,027, leaving the treasury around 13% underwater.
4. Stock Performance and Benchmark Exclusion Risks
Since October 1, Strategy's shares have fallen 65% as Bitcoin declined 40%. The company's mNAV stands at 1.19, and potential exclusion from MSCI indices plus continued absence from the S&P 500 remain key valuation risks.