Union Pacific Q4 EPS Forecast and STB Halts $85B Merger

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Union Pacific is projected to report Q4 2025 earnings of $2.92 per share on January 27, with analysts forecasting $6.1456 billion in revenue. Susquehanna kept its Buy rating despite the STB’s request to revise the $85 billion merger, adding uncertainty to Union Pacific’s $136.1 billion market cap.

1. Union Pacific Q4 2025 Earnings Preview

Union Pacific is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results before markets open on Tuesday, January 27. Wall Street consensus calls for earnings of $2.92 per share on revenue of $6.1456 billion. Management will host a conference call at 8:45 AM ET to discuss drivers behind freight volumes, fuel surcharge adjustments and margin outlook for the year ahead.

2. Q3 2025 Results Demonstrate Operational Strength

In its most recent quarter, Union Pacific reported adjusted EPS of $3.08, topping consensus estimates by $0.09. Total revenue of $6.24 billion matched expectations and reflected a 2.5% year-over-year increase. The railroad delivered a return on equity of 42.23% and a net margin of 28.73%. By comparison, EPS in Q3 2024 stood at $2.75. Analysts project full-year 2025 EPS of $12.00 and have penciled in $13.00 for fiscal 2026.

3. Steady Dividend Policy Supports Income Investors

Union Pacific declared its quarterly dividend on December 5, paying $1.38 per share on December 30 to stockholders of record. The annualized payout of $5.52 represents a 46.9% dividend-to-earnings ratio and a yield near 2.4%. The consistency of the dividend underscores management’s commitment to returning cash to shareholders even as it invests in network expansion and locomotive fleet upgrades.

4. Analyst Ratings and Institutional Positioning

Among covering analysts, one rates UNP as a Strong Buy, fifteen assign a Buy rating and twelve maintain a Hold. Market consensus classifies the stock as a Moderate Buy. On the institutional front, Union Pacific’s free-float shares are 80.4% held by hedge funds and other institutions. Notable moves include a 1.7% stake increase by Keebeck Wealth Management in Q3, a 1.6% bump by Main Street Financial Solutions in Q2 and a 3.8% boost by CYBER HORNET ETFs in Q3, reflecting continued confidence in the railroad’s long-term earnings power.

Sources

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