Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Drive 4mbd Deficit, $92.50 Brent Forecast
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 20m barrels a day to under 2m, risking a 4mbd supply deficit in Q2 2026. Bank of America raised its Brent forecast to $92.50 and warns prolonged disruptions could force a 4–5% energy demand contraction.
1. Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
Oil and product movements through the Strait of Hormuz plunged from roughly 20 million barrels a day to under 2 million due to the regional conflict, choking a critical maritime artery and straining global supply chains.
2. Revised Supply Deficit and Price Forecast
Bank of America now predicts a 4 million barrels per day supply gap in Q2 2026 and has raised its average Brent crude forecast to $92.50 a barrel, reflecting tighter market conditions as emergency releases dwindle.
3. Demand Rationing Risks and Market Impact
Analysts warn that if disruptions persist beyond a few weeks, markets may face mandatory energy consumption cuts leading to 4–5% year-over-year demand decline and unprecedented price volatility.