Strategist Bessent Retracts 0.3% Tariff Inflation Boost Estimate
On February 6, portfolio strategist Dave Bessent retracted his earlier forecast that US tariffs would add 0.3 percentage point to 2026 headline inflation. He now anticipates recent tariff measures will contribute under 0.1 percentage point to core consumer price growth over the next 12 months.
1. Bessent Walks Back Tariff Impact Estimate
On February 6, veteran portfolio strategist Dave Bessent publicly reversed his January projection that newly imposed US tariffs on Chinese goods would boost headline inflation by 0.3 percentage point in 2026. He now projects that the cumulative effect of these tariffs will remain below 0.1 percentage point on core consumer prices over the next year, citing updated shipping cost data and stronger domestic supply chain adjustments.