Strategy Inc’s $200 Target Implies 42% Upside on 10% Bitcoin Growth
Texas Capital initiated coverage on Strategy Inc with a Buy rating and $200 price target, projecting 42% upside based on 10% annual bitcoin growth, $17 billion capital issuance and a 1.19× NAV multiple. Strategy’s Q4 loss widened to $12.4 billion ($42.93/share) as it held 713,502 bitcoins at a $54.26 billion cost.
1. Coverage Initiation and Price Target
Texas Capital initiated coverage on Strategy Inc with a Buy rating and set a $200 price target implying roughly 42% upside from current levels.
2. Valuation Assumptions
The $200 target is based on assumptions including 10% annual bitcoin price growth, $17 billion in capital issuance for 2026 and a 1.19× multiple on net asset value per share.
3. Balance Sheet and Risk Profile
Strategy Inc maintains a conservative balance sheet with debt at 14% of capital and a $2.25 billion cash reserve, offers digital credit instruments averaging 11.5% yield and stands to benefit from market consolidation and policy support.
4. Q4 Financial Results and Bitcoin Holdings
In Q4 2025 Strategy posted a $12.4 billion loss ($42.93 per share) as bitcoin volatility weighed on holdings; it held 713,502 bitcoins valued at a total cost of $54.26 billion as of February 1.