Bitcoin Falls to $78K, Mizuho Lowers MicroStrategy Price Target to $403

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MicroStrategy holds 713,502 bitcoins at an average cost of $76,000 as bitcoin has slumped to ten-month lows around $78,000, risking unrealized losses if prices fall further. Independent Advisor Alliance cut its MicroStrategy stake 7.2% to 52,753 shares valued at $17M, and Mizuho lowered its price target from $484 to $403.

1. Bitcoin Price Decline Puts Strategy’s Cost Basis in Focus

The market value of bitcoin has fallen to levels not seen in ten months, hovering near the average price Strategy paid for its 713,502-coin holding. Since its first purchase in August 2020—now 2,002 days ago—the company has acquired that entire stockpile at an average cost of $76,000 per coin. With bitcoin trading recently around $78,000, analysts warn that any further drop could push Strategy’s sizable investment into an unrealized loss, raising questions about the sustainability of its buy-and-hold model.

2. Michael Saylor Faces Scrutiny Over Unchanged Position

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has held firm on Strategy’s acquisition strategy, not selling a single coin since the program began. As bitcoin-linked equities slide—crypto exchanges, mining operations and related technology providers are all under pressure—investor sentiment toward Strategy has grown more cautious. Over the weekend sell-off, Saylor sought to reassure stakeholders with a lighthearted social-media post, but market observers note that without any coin sales, the company’s balance sheet remains fully exposed to further cryptocurrency volatility.

3. Shifts in Institutional and Insider Holdings Highlight Mixed Sentiment

In the latest regulatory disclosures, Independent Advisor Alliance trimmed its stake in Strategy by 7.2%, reducing its position to 52,753 shares valued at $17 million, while Janney Montgomery Scott added 2%, bringing its holding to 28,461 shares worth $11.5 million. Robeco Institutional Asset Management boosted its exposure by 75.7%, now holding 125,650 shares valued at $50.8 million. On the insider front, Executive Vice President Wei-Ming Shao sold 5,334 shares in November, and Director Carl Rickertsen purchased 5,000 shares in January, illustrating divergent views within the company’s leadership on near-term prospects.

Sources

FID