Supply constraints keep U.S. single-family home prices near record highs
XLRE•Pretium Securities says U.S. single-family home prices have seen a maximum peak-to-trough decline of roughly 2% over the past decade, compared with 10%-30% corrections in apartment, retail and office property prices.
1. Housing supply remains tight
Pretium Securities says underbuilding since the 2008 financial crisis has left a persistent housing supply deficit, while stable shelter demand supports resilience. Mortgage rate lock-in further restricts supply as homeowners retain cheaper financing, keeping listings near historic lows.
2. Property price comparisons
The firm says single-family home prices had a maximum peak-to-trough decline of roughly 2% over the past decade, while apartment, retail and office property prices experienced corrections of 10%-30%. It says these dynamics support lower collateral volatility for single-family housing-backed equity and debt investments, underpinning more stable valuations and credit performance.
