TD Cowen Cuts Lowe's Price Target to $280, Expects Soft DIY Demand
TD Cowen lowered its price target on Lowe's to $280 from $295 and maintained a hold rating, citing reduced revenue and profit margin forecasts for fiscal 2026. Lowe's has a 65-year dividend increase streak; analysts project free cash flow growing from $7.7B in fiscal 2026 to $10.35B by fiscal 2031.
1. TD Cowen Revises Price Target
TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko cut Lowe's price target to $280 from $295 while maintaining a hold rating. The revision reflects lower expectations for both revenue growth and profit margins in fiscal 2026 as the firm waits for a recovery in do-it-yourself customer spending.
2. Macro Headwinds Weigh on DIY Spending
Big-ticket discretionary projects have stalled as consumers face mortgage rates near 7% and elevated economic uncertainty. Home improvement spending on kitchen renovations, flooring, and other major projects has remained in neutral over the past two years, constraining top-line growth for Lowe's.
3. Strong Dividend Track Record and Cash Flow Outlook
Lowe's has raised its dividend for 65 consecutive years, with the annual payout increasing from $0.12 per share in 2006 to $4.80 in 2026. Analysts forecast free cash flow rising from $7.7 billion in fiscal 2026 to $10.35 billion by fiscal 2031, supporting potential dividend growth to $6.11 per share.