Tesco Reports 2.9% LFL Sales Growth, Eyes Top-End £3.1 Billion Profit Range

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Tesco’s group like-for-like sales rose 2.9% for the 19 weeks ending Jan. 3, including 3.7% growth in the UK with market share at a decade high after 32 consecutive gains. The retailer expects full-year adjusted operating profit at the top end of its £2.9–£3.1 billion range following over £6 billion Christmas sales.

1. Earnings Call Highlights

During the Q3 2026 earnings call, CEO Ken Murphy reported that Tesco’s investments in value, quality and service drove group like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 2.9% over the 19-week period. In the U.K. specifically, LFL sales rose 3.7%, contributing to the highest market share the company has held in over a decade after 32 consecutive periods of gains. Customer satisfaction scores improved across the board, reflecting positive responses to refreshed store formats and expanded online delivery slots.

2. Third Quarter Sales Performance

Tesco recorded group LFL sales growth of 3.1% in the third quarter, slightly below analyst consensus of 3.9% and Deutsche Bank’s forecast. The shortfall was driven primarily by a weaker contribution from Booker, the wholesale arm, where LFL sales increased by just 1.8%. Excluding fuel, LFL sales rose 2.9% for the 19 weeks ending January 3, indicating underlying momentum remained intact despite the Missed consensus benchmarks.

3. Christmas Trading Results

Over the six weeks to early January, Tesco delivered LFL sales growth of 2.4% across the Christmas period. The grocer processed more than 2 billion items at tills and generated over GBP 6 billion in sales in the four weeks to Christmas Eve. Fresh food categories outperformed, with meat and produce sales up 4.5% year-over-year, while online grocery orders climbed 12%, reflecting continued consumer shift towards home delivery services.

4. Profit Guidance and Market Reaction

Following the trading update, Tesco raised its full-year adjusted operating profit outlook to the top end of its previously stated GBP 2.9 billion to GBP 3.1 billion range. Despite a more than 5% share price decline on the day of the announcement—driven by the slight sales miss—both Citi and Deutsche Bank retained buy recommendations, citing strong market share gains and a robust margin outlook underpinned by efficiency improvements and stable fuel margins.

Sources

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