Tesla Faces Q2 Delivery Range of 396,466 to 420,000 Vehicles
TSLA•Tesla is set to report Q2 deliveries around July 2, with Bloomberg consensus at 396,466 vehicles and Tesla IR median at 408,609 vehicles based on 20+ analysts. Goldman Sachs forecasts 420,000 deliveries and Barclays 418,000, as U.S. deliveries slump 20% but Europe and China drive growth.
1. Consensus Delivery Estimates
Two main benchmarks are guiding Q2 expectations: a Bloomberg consensus of 396,466 vehicles compiled from roughly 20 analysts and a Tesla IR median estimate of 408,609 vehicles from 22 firms. Several banks project higher figures, including Goldman Sachs at 420,000, Barclays at 418,000 and Morgan Stanley near 413,000.
2. Global vs. U.S. Delivery Trends
Domestic deliveries are projected to fall about 20% year-over-year, shrinking U.S. market share to roughly 2.9% after the federal EV tax credit expired. Europe and China growth will determine whether total Q2 deliveries meet or exceed the various consensus estimates.
3. Q1 Production and Inventory Overhang
In Q1, production reached 408,386 vehicles while deliveries totaled 358,023, leaving about 50,363 units in transit or inventory at quarter-end. This 50,000-unit overhang—double the prior year’s gap—highlights the need for sequential growth and inventory clearance in the upcoming report.
