Tesla Faces Robotaxi Scaling Pressure; Q2 Deliveries Projected at 406,000
TSLA•Gary Black warns Tesla shares, down 15% YTD versus Nasdaq 100’s 16% gain, may lag until its unsupervised robotaxi fleet scales beyond 40 vehicles and FSD efficacy improves from 99% to 99.99%. Meanwhile, second-quarter deliveries are expected to reach about 406,000 units, surpassing last year’s 384,122.
1. Robotaxi Fleet Scale Concerns
Gary Black notes Tesla shares, down 15% year-to-date versus a 16% gain for the Nasdaq 100, may continue underperforming until its unsupervised robotaxi fleet exceeds about 40 vehicles. He cautions that counting supervised, safety-monitored vehicles in robotaxi projections is misleading and doesn’t reflect true autonomy progress.
2. Full Self-Driving Efficacy Targets
Black estimates current FSD efficacy at roughly 99% (one intervention per 100 drives) and argues Tesla must achieve 99.99% efficacy (one intervention per 10,000 drives) before unsupervised autonomy can scale to cover half the U.S. population as Elon Musk outlined.
3. Second-Quarter Delivery Forecast
Consensus forecasts peg Q2 deliveries at around 406,000 units, up from 384,122 a year earlier, which could be bolstered by higher gas prices. Despite delivery growth, Tesla’s nearly 200x P/E ratio remains hard to justify until autonomous operations expand.
