Tesla Q1 Preview: $22.3B Revenue, 358K Deliveries, Negative $1.8B Cash Flow
Tesla is forecast to report Q1 revenue of $22.3 billion and EPS of $0.36 after delivering 358,023 vehicles (vs. 365,000 consensus) and producing 408,386 units, while free cash flow is expected at a negative $1.8 billion ahead of Thursday’s results. Investors will focus on guidance for robotaxis, the AI5 chip and Optimus push plus capex potentially exceeding $20 billion in 2026, while Wedbush’s retained $600 target highlights bullish conviction despite a 13.8% year-to-date share decline.
1. Earnings Expectations
Tesla is set to reveal Q1 metrics including revenue guided at $22.3 billion and EPS of $0.36. Deliveries of 358,023 units fell short of the 365,000 consensus, while production reached 408,386 units. Automotive gross margins are forecast near 16%, and free cash flow is projected at negative $1.8 billion, reflecting ongoing investment soak.
2. Key Investment Focus
Beyond headline numbers, investors will look for updates on the robotaxi program, progress on the in-house AI5 chip and Optimus robotics initiative. Management commentary on capital expenditures will be critical, with talk of capex rising above $20 billion in 2026 driven by Terafab and AI infrastructure commitments.
3. Analyst Outlook and Market Sentiment
Wedbush has maintained a $600 price target, citing long-term value in software, autonomy and the upcoming CyberCab. Tesla shares are down 13.8% year-to-date, and options markets imply a roughly 6% post-earnings swing, reflecting elevated volatility expectations.