Tesla Q2 Deliveries Forecast Raised to 420,000 on Europe’s 90% Surge
TSLA•Goldman Sachs raised its Tesla Q2 vehicle delivery forecast to 420,000 units from 405,000, surpassing the 400,000 consensus, based on monthly and weekly sales indicators. European registrations jumped 85–90% year-over-year through May, while China saw high single-digit growth and U.S. deliveries fell mid-teens.
1. Goldman Raises Q2 Delivery Estimate
Goldman Sachs lifted its Q2 delivery forecast for Tesla to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, exceeding the Visible Alpha consensus of 400,000 based on regional monthly and weekly sales data across key markets.
2. Europe Leads with Strong Growth
European registration data through May showed an 85–90% year-over-year increase, driven partly by a low base from Q2 2025, when deliveries fell 29%, underpinning the forecast upgrade.
3. Mixed Results in Asia and U.S.
China deliveries delivered high single-digit growth through May, and other Asia-Pacific markets posted robust gains, while U.S. deliveries trailed with a mid-teens year-over-year decline, highlighting regional demand disparities.
