Tesla Q2 Deliveries Projected at 420K, EPS $0.50–$0.52 and 18% Margins
TSLA•Wolfe Research forecasts Tesla to deliver 420,000 vehicles in Q2 with EPS of $0.50–$0.52 and automotive gross margins in the low-18% range, all beating consensus. Speculation of a Tesla-SpaceX merger, unlikely before mid-2027, has provided additional downside support for shares.
1. Q2 Delivery and Earnings Forecast
Wolfe Research forecasts global Q2 deliveries of 420,000 vehicles, compared to Wall Street’s 400,000-unit consensus, and projects EPS of $0.50–$0.52, outpacing the $0.45 average estimate.
2. Margin Projections and Demand Trends
Automotive gross margins excluding credits are expected in the low-18% range, while Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 units, citing stronger demand across Europe, China and other international markets.
3. Tesla-SpaceX Merger Speculation
Increasing buzz around a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger has supported the stock, though any transaction is not anticipated before mid-2027 at the earliest.
4. Stock Movement and Execution Risks
Tesla shares closed at $396.38 after a 2% drop, then rose 1% overnight; Wolfe Research cautioned that execution of long-term initiatives like robotaxis may underperform and competition from Waymo and Mobileye is intensifying.
