Tesla Raises 2026 Capex Forecast to $25B as Shares Face 16% YTD Drop
Tesla boosted its 2026 capital expenditure guidance by $5 billion to $25 billion, following $8.5 billion spent in 2025, prompting a sell-off and range-bound trading. Investors also flagged Elon Musk’s potential free trading of 304 million shares in 2028 and cautious robotaxi rollout, contributing to a 16% YTD share decline.
1. Capex Guidance Hike
Tesla increased its 2026 capex guidance by $5 billion to $25 billion from $20 billion, reflecting investments in AI-powered production lines and its new Terafab chip plant after spending $8.5 billion in 2025. The surprise hike prompted a sell-off, leaving the stock range-bound since the earnings call.
2. Share Overhang and Robotaxi Outlook
A recent SEC filing shows Elon Musk’s 304 million shares from his 2018 pay package will become freely tradable in early 2028, raising concerns over future supply and volatility. Combined with a cautious robotaxi rollout plan and demand uncertainty following the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit, Tesla’s shares have fallen 16% year to date.