Tesla Sales Up 15%, Battery Storage Hits $3bn as Robotaxi Delays Mount
TSLA•Tesla posted 15% year-on-year vehicle sales growth, 11 GWh battery storage deployments generating $3bn and 18.3% auto gross margin while it cuts EPS estimates 23-40%. The stock trades 7% above Jefferies’ $375 target as robotaxi delays, rising cash burn and $25bn capex guide highlight valuation disconnect.
1. Operational Performance
Tesla accelerated vehicle deliveries by 15% year-on-year and deployed 11 GWh of battery storage, driving $3bn in revenue. Auto gross margins recovered to 18.3%, reflecting improved production efficiencies and more favorable input costs.
2. Valuation Disconnect
Despite the operational gains, consensus EPS forecasts were cut by 23-40%, yet shares trade 7% above Jefferies’ $375 target. The divergence underscores market pricing of optional merger value and long-term narratives over near-term fundamentals.
3. Robotaxi and Capex Outlook
Full Self-Driving v15 is now delayed to late 2026 and hardware upgrades remain unresolved, with minimal robotaxi units in service. Annual capex guidance sits at $25bn and cumulative cash burn through 2026 is estimated at $7.8bn, fueling concerns over funding long-dated projects with no immediate returns.
