Tesla Sees 10% Q2 Delivery Gain but Robotaxi Delays Could Weigh
TSLA•Wolfe Research forecasts Tesla will deliver 420,000 vehicles in Q2, a 10% increase year-over-year, and sees automotive gross margins excluding credits rising to the low-18% range from 17.7% in Q1, with EPS of $0.50–$0.52 versus a $0.45 consensus. The firm warns that slower-than-expected robotaxi and humanoid robotics ramp curves, combined with competition from Waymo’s 20-city rollout and Mobileye’s 100-unit goal, could hinder long-term valuation.
1. Q2 Delivery and Earnings Outlook
Wolfe Research projects Tesla will deliver 420,000 vehicles globally in Q2, about 10% above last year and above the 400,000 consensus. The analyst expects automotive gross margins excluding credits to climb to the low-18% range from 17.7% in Q1, driving EPS of $0.50–$0.52 versus a $0.45 consensus estimate.
2. Robotaxi and Robotics Execution Risks
Despite a strong near-term setup, the firm highlights that Tesla’s valuation hinges on longer-term initiatives in robotaxi and humanoid robotics. Ramp curves for these segments are shallower than anticipated, with Tesla likely to miss first-half deployment targets for its robotaxi fleet.
3. Intensifying Competitive Pressures
Key risks include Waymo’s planned expansion into 20 cities this year, Mobileye’s aim to deploy 100 robotaxis by 2027, and accelerating humanoid production from Figure AI and Boston Dynamics. These advances could limit Tesla’s market share and slow broader adoption of its autonomous services.
