The road to an all-electric car fleet will be bumpier than it looks
SPY•DNV projects battery electric vehicles will exceed 90% of passenger car fleets by 2050 in markets including China and Europe, but the shift from combustion engines will vary by region. China and Europe could remove more than 300 million internal combustion cars from their roads by 2050, while growing conventional-car fleets in emerging markets may partly offset declines in fuel demand.
1. Fleet shifts vary
Battery electric vehicles could exceed 90% of passenger car fleets by 2050 in markets including China, Europe and Southeast Asia, DNV projects. But countries are replacing combustion-engine cars at different rates, and some are expanding electric and conventional fleets side by side.
2. China and Europe lead
China has around 37.5 million passenger EVs in use, more than the rest of the world combined, DNV data shows. Its EV fleet is projected to exceed 165 million by 2035 and 360 million by 2050, while its internal combustion engine fleet could shrink from around 314 million now to 107 million by 2050. Europe's conventional-car fleet is projected to fall from around 284 million to 77 million by 2050, while its battery EV fleet rises from around 12.5 million to 177 million.
3. Emerging markets add cars
North America's internal combustion fleet is projected to decline from around 290 million cars currently to 215 million by 2040, while its EV fleet rises from around 8 million to nearly 86 million. India's combustion-car fleet, by contrast, is expected to grow from around 73 million to a peak of about 165 million in the late 2040s. China and Europe could remove well over 300 million combustion cars by 2050, but continued growth in conventional-car ownership in India and other emerging markets may partly offset fuel-demand declines.
