A prominent Wall Street analyst lowered The Trade Desk’s price target by 30% this week after the company projected single-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2026, compared with its prior guidance of mid-teens expansion. The analyst cited deteriorating visibility into programmatic ad spend and increased client churn, predicting that the stock could fall another 20% over the next 12 months unless The Trade Desk demonstrates a clear path back to double-digit revenue gains.

Over the past quarter, The Trade Desk saw three senior executives exit the company, including its chief product officer and head of international sales. These departures come as the firm reports that its global headcount decreased by 8% year-over-year. Insiders point to disagreements over strategy for new retail media offerings and slower adoption of the company’s AI-driven bidding platform, which has yet to deliver the 25% margin improvement originally targeted for 2025.

Industry data shows Amazon’s ad-tech revenue grew by 45% in fiscal 2025, compared with The Trade Desk’s 12% growth for the same period. As advertisers allocate larger budgets to walled-garden platforms, The Trade Desk’s market share in the US open-internet segment has declined from 18% to 14% over the past year. Investors are watching whether upcoming product launches—such as a new omnichannel measurement tool slated for Q3—can help the company stem further share loss and return to growth.