Thrivent Cuts 7% Stake, UMB Bank Sells 25% in UnitedHealth Group
Thrivent Financial trimmed its UnitedHealth Group stake by 7% to 463,792 shares ($160M), and UMB Bank cut holdings by 25.2% to 33,054 shares ($11.4M). Jefferies reduced its price target from $418 to $340 and Oppenheimer lowered theirs from $415 to $385, setting an average analyst target of $376.75.
1. Valuation Premium Under Pressure
UnitedHealth Group’s industry-leading stability has historically justified its premium valuation, but over the past year the stock has underperformed peers by more than 15%. Analysts cite a contraction in forward price/earnings multiples—from roughly 23× last spring to nearer 21× today—as investors recalibrate for slower margin expansion and potential reimbursement headwinds in Medicare Advantage plans. MarketBeat consensus now places the implied average target multiple at 22.5× forward EPS, down from 24× six months ago.
2. Institutional Buying Signals Confidence
In the third quarter, Lee Financial Co initiated a 3,390-share stake valued at approximately $1.17 million, according to its latest 13F filing. Brighton Jones LLC and Revolve Wealth Partners LLC also added 28,231 and 2,324 shares respectively, lifting their combined holdings by over $24 million. Collectively, institutional ownership stands at 87.9%, underscoring continued confidence among hedge funds and asset managers in UnitedHealth’s long-term cash flow generation and defensive earnings profile.
3. Q4 Earnings Beat and FY26 Guidance
UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.22 billion, up 12.3% year-over-year, and EPS of $2.11—$0.02 above consensus estimates. Net margin improved to 2.69%, while return on equity reached 14.79%. For fiscal 2026 the company set earnings guidance of $17.75 per share, implying growth of 5% over fiscal 2025 consensus. Optum’s service segment led segment growth with 14% revenue expansion, offsetting modest pressure in UnitedHealthcare’s commercial membership yields.
4. Dividend Yield and Balance Sheet Strength
UnitedHealth maintained its quarterly dividend at $2.21 per share, translating to an annualized yield of 3.1%. The payout ratio sits at 67.0%, in line with historical policy. The company’s debt–to–equity ratio of 0.72 and current liquidity reserves exceed $20 billion, providing ample capacity for targeted tuck-in acquisitions through Optum and continued share repurchases equal to roughly 1% of market capitalization annually.