Tilray Price Targets Lifted to $10 as Stock Triples on Reclassification Optimism

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Analysts have lifted Tilray’s consensus price target from $4.50 to $10.00 over the past year, with CIBC’s John Zamparo setting an $8.00 target. The stock has nearly tripled in value over the last six months following regulatory shifts expected to boost industry profitability.

1. Regulatory Reclassification Spurs Momentum Surge

Tilray Brands has been a key driver behind the AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF’s momentum score spike from 24.75 to 88.95 over the past week. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ recommendation to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III allows cannabis companies to deduct standard business expenses, boosting after-tax margins by an estimated 400 basis points. Investor optimism around this ruling has translated into heightened trading volume and positive analyst revisions for Tilray’s earnings outlook.

2. Record Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Expectations

In its second quarter of fiscal 2026, Tilray delivered record results, reporting revenue of $415 million, up 32% year-over-year and surpassing consensus by 9%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 48% to $72 million, driven by strong performance in both the beverage alcohol and wellness segments. Net income swung to a $12 million profit from a $5 million loss in the prior year period, reflecting improved operational leverage and cost discipline. The company’s non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share of $0.07 comfortably outpaced the consensus of $0.02.

3. Analyst Sentiment and Strategic Growth Outlook

Analysts have lifted Tilray’s consensus price target from $4.50 to $10 over the last 12 months, signaling growing confidence in the company’s multi-segment strategy. CIBC’s John Zamparo remains measured with an $8 target, noting potential headwinds as the company scales international operations. Investors are focused on Tilray’s recent partnerships in the beverage alcohol and wellness sectors, product innovation—such as GMP-certified vapes and edibles—and the anticipated benefits of federal tax deductions on future profitability.

Sources

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