TotalEnergies Predicts EU Will Scrap SAF Mandate While Raising Output to Offset Weak Prices
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the EU is likely to drop sustainable aviation fuel requirements, mirroring its reversal on the 2035 new combustion-engine car ban. Meanwhile, the company plans to increase crude output and leverage rising power demand from electric vehicles and AI data centers to mitigate price weakness.
1. TotalEnergies CEO Predicts Future EU Ban on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
At the company’s annual strategy briefing on Wednesday, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné warned that the European Union will likely phase out sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) requirements in the years ahead. Drawing a parallel to Brussels’ recent decision to shelve its 2035 ban on new combustion-engine vehicles, Pouyanné argued that SAF mandates face similar political headwinds. He noted that the bloc’s renewable jet fuel directive, which currently targets a 2% SAF blend by 2025 and 6% by 2030, could be reversed if member states prioritize energy security over decarbonization. Pouyanné emphasized that TotalEnergies has already invested over €1.2 billion in SAF research and production capacity, but cautioned that without stable long-term policies, future growth in this segment could stall.
2. Production Increase to Cushion Impact of Weaker Prices
In its latest full-year outlook, TotalEnergies raised its 2026 hydrocarbon production target by 3% to 3.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, aiming to offset the effect of projected price declines. The company plans to bring four major projects online in West Africa and the North Sea, adding 150 kb/d of gas and 70 kb/d of liquids by Q4 2025. TotalEnergies is also reallocating capital toward power generation, forecasting a 20% rise in on-grid and off-grid electricity output by 2027—driven in part by surging demand from electric vehicle charging networks and new AI data center developments. Management reiterated its commitment to a €14 billion annual investment budget, with 40% earmarked for low-carbon energies, ensuring free cash flow remains above €15 billion despite volatile hydrocarbon markets.