TotalEnergies Sees 5% Q4 Production Growth as Namibian Deal Faces Approval Delay
TotalEnergies SE expects Q4 2025 hydrocarbon output to rise about 5% year-over-year to 2.5286 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by the Ichthys LNG restart and organic growth, although earnings and revenues are forecast to decline roughly 5.3% and 22.1%. Namibia’s Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy has refused to recognize the companies’ 42.5% stake in the Luderitz Basin PEL104 license until formal ministerial approval is obtained, delaying TTE’s offshore expansion.
1. Q4 Earnings Preview
TotalEnergies will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, with consensus estimates of $1.80 in EPS and $36.69 billion in revenues, marking a 5.3% and 22.1% YoY decline, respectively. Hydrocarbon production is expected to average 2,528.6 kboe/d, up nearly 5% YoY, supported by the restart of Australia’s Ichthys LNG, contributions from new projects and a $1.5 billion share buyback.
2. Luderitz Basin Acquisition Dispute
In January, TotalEnergies and Petrobras each agreed to acquire a 42.5% interest in Namibia’s offshore PEL104 Luderitz Basin license, with TTE set as operator. Namibia’s energy ministry has not recognized the deal, citing a lack of formal application and ministerial consent, effectively pausing TTE’s ambition to become the country’s first oil producer by decade-end.
3. Strategic and Financial Implications
The Q4 production tailwinds may bolster cash flow, but lower expected earnings and revenues reflect recent divestments and market headwinds. The Namibian regulatory standoff introduces project execution risk and could delay offshore development, potentially impacting TotalEnergies’ medium-term growth trajectory and capital allocation plans.