TotalEnergies sees oil demand plateau in 2030s under current trends
TTE•TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook 2026 projects oil demand will plateau in the 2030s under current trends, while gas demand stabilizes in the 2040s. The outlook puts warming at 2.6°C–2.8°C by 2100 in that scenario and says low-carbon energy investment reached $2.1 trillion in 2025.
1. Outlook scenarios
TotalEnergies published its Energy Outlook 2026, projecting continued fossil fuel demand growth under current policy trends. In its Trends scenario, petroleum demand plateaus in the 2030s before slowly declining, while gas demand stabilizes in the 2040s. The scenario implies warming of 2.6°C–2.8°C by 2100, compared with 2.3°C–2.4°C under the Momentum scenario and 1.8°C–1.9°C under the Rupture scenario, which the company says appears out of reach given geopolitical rivalries and insufficient international cooperation.
2. Low-carbon investment
Low-carbon energy investment, including end-use electrification, rose to $2.1 trillion in 2025 from $1.2 trillion in 2015.
