TransUnion Sees 11.2% Unsecured Loan Growth and 4% Mortgage Rise in 2026 Forecast
TransUnion forecasts 2026 mortgage originations growth of 4.0% purchase and 4.2% refinance, with unsecured personal loans up 11.2%, credit cards rising 2.0% and auto originations down 1.5%. Q4 2025 trends include a two-point drop in median VantageScore to 711 and $1.15 trillion in credit card balances.
1. 2026 Originations Forecast
TransUnion projects 2026 originations with mortgage purchase volumes rising 4.0% and refinance volumes up 4.2% annually. Unsecured personal loans are expected to grow 11.2%, credit card originations to increase by 2.0% and auto originations to decline by 1.5%, reflecting a moderation from 2025 gains.
2. Q4 2025 Credit Trends
In Q4 2025, credit card originations surged 11.7% year-over-year, boosting total balances to $1.15 trillion. During the same period, the median VantageScore fell two points to 711, indicating a subtle shift in overall consumer credit health.
3. Lender and Consumer Outlook
Lenders are anticipated to pursue measured growth using advanced data and fraud tools to manage risk, while strong consumer demand could further accelerate if interest rates decrease more than expected in upcoming quarters.