Trea AM sees global growth near 3% despite Middle East war
SPY•Trea Asset Management’s fourth-quarter outlook sees global growth near 3% despite the Middle East war. The IMF forecasts 3.1% growth in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while the OECD raised its 2026 forecast to 2.9%.
1. Growth forecasts
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, up from its July forecast of 3%, and 3.4% in 2027. The OECD raised its growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.8%, though nearly half of countries face worsening prospects.
2. Inflation and financing
Higher energy and food prices are driving inflation and prompting gradual central bank rate increases. Long-term debt yields are at their highest in more than 15 years, while businesses and households continue to access financing without difficulty.
