Treasury yield bulls hold the upper hand ahead of Jackson Hole

From a technical standpoint, the move higher continues to validate the recent breakout from a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern.

A move above 4.7478% would further strengthen the bullish case and bring the January 2025 high of 4.809% into focus. Beyond that, attention would turn to the October 2023 peak at 5.021%. The upper yearly Bollinger Band, now just above 5.00%, sits near that level and reinforces its significance. For longer-term context, the January 2007 high stands at 5.333%.

On the downside, former triangle resistance near 4.53% on the weekly chart, together with the rising 20-week moving average around 4.52%, marks an important support zone. The 20-week average contained pullbacks in both April and late June, making it a key area for bulls to defend. A weekly close below that zone would begin to undermine the breakout narrative.

Further out, the 20-month moving average, currently just above 4.30%, remains an important longer-term pivot level.

U.S. Treasury yields are edging higher on Friday as investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's appearance at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where markets will be looking for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates.

Warsh is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on the economy, recent bond market volatility and risks facing both the U.S. and global economies. Still, expectations for major policy signals remain muted. Several Fed officials on Thursday reiterated concerns about inflation, while Warsh's preference for offering limited forward guidance has tempered hopes for a clear steer on rates.

Against that backdrop, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR, which ended Thursday at 4.672%, is hovering near 4.68% on Friday.